3 months into general election results, Nifty closes in green on four occasions

New Delhi: On a 3-month basis into the election results, the Nifty has closed in the green on four occasions with an average up-move of 10.7%, JM Financial Institutional Securities said in a research on markets movement post India’s general elections.

The maximum positive move of 25% was observed in 2009 while a minimum positive move of 8% was observed in 2019. The index had closed in the red in 2004, down by 10%. However, it was followed by a massive recovery from Jun’04 onwards, the research said.

The Bank Nifty has closed in the green on all the four occasions (the index was not trading during the year 1999) with an average up-move of 21%. In 2004, it had closed flat while the highest return of 46% was observed in 2014.

Further, the Bank Nifty has outperformed the Nifty on all the four occasions with an average outperformance of 11%.

India is gearing up for the general election, with the results likely to be declared by mid-May. In the current calendar year, with the broader indices facing heightened volatility, the brokerage analysed the last 5 general elections (1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019) to identify the potential movement in the broader indices along with the list of outperformers and underperformers on a 3-month basis into the election results.

The Nifty and the Bank Nifty tends to move up strongly on a 6-month basis into the election results. Since the release of a previous report, the Nifty has surged by 17% while the Bank Nifty has moved up by 10%, with major moves being observed during November and December.

Stock specific outperformers are Adani Enterprises, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Siemens, Shree Cement, UPL, Indusind Bank, Ashok Leyland, Federal Bank, Grasim Industries, Bajaj Finance.

Underperformers are Hindustan Unilever, Divis Lab, OFSS, Britannia Industries, Tata Steel, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, HCL Technologies, Tata Power and Steel Authority of India (SAIL).