Bhubaneswar: The 2024 Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the
country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). According to reports, quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
Further currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season.
The northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March, 2024) was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Further it is worth mentioning that IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May, 2024.
Ms Kalinga