Cyclone in October! Know what international meteorologist Jason Nicholls predicts

Bhubaneswar: A cyclone is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal during the first week of October. International meteorologist of AccuWeather, Jason Nicholls has tweeted about the possibility of cyclone during the first week of October.

As per his predictions, a low low pressure area is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal by the end of September. This storm is likely to intensify into a cyclone in October. There lies a possibility of disturbance in the Bay of Bengal during the first week of October. This prediction aligns with favourable conditions in the region, as mentioned by Jason Nicholls.

Some additional scientific models also suggest the possibility of formation of a cyclone in October over the Bay of Bengal. These models indicate the formation of a low pressure area over the North Eastern Bay of Bengal.

The NCEP GFS model indicates that a low pressure area over the Eastern-central-southeast BoB and adjoining Andaman Sea around 29th September which is likely to move west-northwestward and intensify further into a depression. This is subsequently to develop into a cyclonic storm over West-Central BoB by October 3.

However, IMD GFS model has not indicated any cyclogenesis over BoB during week 1. The mean wind and anomaly of wind forecasts by extended range model IMD CFS (V2) are indicating a cyclonic circulation over central BoB and another over northeast & adjoining east-central AS during week 2. During the same period, the model is displaying 20-30 % probability of cyclogenesis over northeast AS and also over east-central BoB whereas the ECMWF model indicates 10-20 % probability over north and adjoining central BoB.

Despite different models predicting the formation of a cyclonic storm, no concrete forecast has been issued by the Indian meteorological department yet. The shift of weather from monsoon to post-monsoon typically happens in October. During this time, the South west monsoon withdraws, and the north east monsoon sets in.

The transition in weather leads to formation of cyclonic storms at times. These cyclonic storms usually cause a significant impact on Odisha.

Conditions can become conducive for low & perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October. pic.twitter.com/AbWY04Ocsr

— Jason Nicholls 💙 (@jnmet) September 21, 2023

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