New Delhi: Drawing parallels to the second wave of Covid, a mathematical model prepared by advisers to PM Modi suggests India’s coronavirus outbreak could peak in daily cases in India. The team suggested a mid-May and June peak for India.
According to the reports, based on the current 7DMA of reported infections will hit the median level of 2.5 per cent by mid-Jun 2021 in India while Maharashtra has already crossed this mark. At the same pace, India may take nearly two months to get to incremental infections equal to 2 per cent of its population, from 0.5 per cent currently, during the second wave.
Meanwhile, scientists believe that the coming few weeks will be difficult for India. A team at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore used a mathematical model to predict about 404,000 deaths will occur by June 11 if current trends continue.
On the other hand, CLSA suggested that India’s total tests, at 20 per cent of the population, is well below median of 50 per cent for key countries. This may suggest a higher level of underreporting of cases than other nations which also means the population with antibodies may be much higher than the reported cases.
India has vaccinated 1.7 per cent of its population with both doses so far. By end May 2021, total cases plus people vaccinated with both doses will cross 9 per cent of the population for overall India, as per Union Health Ministry.
Ms Kalinga