Will La Nina trigger cyclones in Odisha? Know what meteorologists predict
History says that when cyclones come in La Nina years and they often hit Odisha hard. For example, the cyclones in 1971, 1999 and even in 2013 had badly affected the state.
Bhubaneswar: The monsoon withdrawal from the country has already started and the monsoon season will end when the month of September ends. With this, October, the cyclonic month for Odisha, will begin. Since the 1999 Super Cyclone, Odisha has been witnessing cyclone between October and December. Due to this now question arises will a cyclone be formed over the Bay of Bengal in October and what is the probability of a cyclone making a landfall in Odisha?
As of now, though it not possible for meteorologists to predict cyclone, there is a high possibility of a condition favorable for formation of cyclones. Many weather agencies of the world, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD), have estimated that La Nina conditions will form from the end of September or October. This means that the probability of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal from October to November has increased as La Nina is favorable for formation of the same.
La Nina is a climatic phenomenon which is a phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. La Nina occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this condition, the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial regions remains cooler than normal. Strong trade winds push warm water westward. Although La Nina begins in the Pacific, its impact falls on the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. In the Bay of Bengal, it does not directly affect the sea surface temperature. But it indirectly warms the waters in the Bay of Bengal by affecting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the monsoon currents. As a result, the weather is favorable for formation of cyclones.
During La Nina, the formation and intensity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal increases. This is because the air pressure difference in the central and northern Bay of Bengal decreases, which strengthens the storms. Due to the increased humidity in the middle air and the increase in low-level circulation, clouds condense, making it easier for the formation of cyclones. La Nina years are more likely to produce strong storms in the Bay of Bengal than El Niño years. The 1999 Super Cyclone occurred during La Nina.
Till date, the Pacific Ocean is in ENSO-neutral conditions and is very likely to change to La Nina. The US NOAA estimates that there is a 71% chance of La Nina formation between October-December 2025. The World Meteorological Organization estimates that the probability of La Nina is 60%. La Nina conditions may start from the end of September. The IMD has estimated that the probability of La Nina is higher during the post-monsoon period.
According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, there is currently a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition. It is expected to change towards La Nina soon. This may be seen by the end of September. Due to which the conditions may be favorable for the formation of a cyclone. In La Nina years, cyclones are seen in the post-monsoon season. But there is a possibility of change. There is a 70-80% chance that a cyclone will definitely form between October-November due to the influence of La Nina.
Earlier, the 1999 cyclone and the 2013 Phailin hit the state of Odisha during La Nina and so both the cyclones were more intense. If the cyclone comes during La Nina, it might move in the east-northwest direction and likely to make landfall in Andhra, Odisha, Bhadrak and Balasore, West Bengal or Bangladesh.
History says that when cyclones come in La Nina years and they often hit Odisha hard. For example, the cyclones in 1971, 1999 and even in 2013 had badly affected the state. But only time will say either Odisha will have to deal with another cyclone in the next three months.
