In a milestone report released today, PL Capital has detailed the meteoric rise and emerging challenges of India’s solar manufacturing sector. The data reveals that between FY23 and FY25, India effectively became the primary alternative to China for the United States, with a staggering 97% of its solar module exports flowing exclusively to American shores.
A Record-Breaking Export Era
The transformation has been explosive. Driven by a 19% to 21% cost advantage over U.S.-made modules, India’s exports multiplied nine-fold in 2023 and doubled again in 2024. This performance catapulted India’s share of the U.S. solar import market from a mere 3% in 2022 to 11% by late 2024, though it still trails Southeast Asian leaders like Vietnam, which holds a 36% share.
The 2025 “Double-Tariff” Shock
However, the “Golden Era” of exports faced a severe geopolitical pivot in August 2025. The U.S. administration implemented a cumulative 50% import tariff on Indian goods, structured in two layers:
An initial 25% reciprocal duty enacted on August 7.
A subsequent 25% penalty added on August 27, explicitly tied to India’s continued trade of discounted Russian oil.
This tariff wall, combined with ongoing U.S. investigations into alleged 123% dumping margins, has fundamentally shifted the outlook for Indian manufacturers who rely on international sales.
Corporate Performance: Export Giants vs. Domestic Champions
The report highlights a widening divide between companies based on their market exposure. Waaree Energies remains the most internationally focused player, with 59.5% of its ₹47,000 crore order book tied to overseas markets as of September 2025. While it recently reported a robust annual revenue of ₹14,846 crore for FY25, its high exposure to the U.S. makes it the most susceptible to the new 50% tariff regime.
In stark contrast, Premier Energies has emerged as a fortress of domestic stability. Its massive ₹13,250 crore order book is categorized as entirely domestic, insulating the firm from global trade wars. Premier is currently executing a aggressive ₹12,000 crore capital expenditure plan to expand its module and cell capacity to over 10 GW by FY26.
Vikram Solar maintains a more balanced strategy, with 15% of its 11.15 GW order book derived from exports. The company recently reported a 94% surge in Q2 revenue to ₹1,109.9 crore, supported by a diverse client base where 52% of orders come from independent power producers. Meanwhile, Adani Solar continues to lead in vertical integration, seeing a 59% year-on-year increase in module sales, reaching 4,263 MW for the fiscal year.
Future Outlook: The 290 GW Domestic Frontier
As export margins tighten, PL Capital suggests the next growth phase will be inward-looking. With India’s total power capacity crossing 500 GW this year and solar installations expected to hit 290 GW by 2030, the focus is shifting from simple module assembly to deep backward integration. Total industry capex is projected to exceed ₹48,000 crore as leaders like Waaree and Vikram race to manufacture their own ingots and wafers locally.
While the 50% U.S. tariff represents a significant hurdle, the rapid expansion of India’s internal “Mission 500” energy target ensures that for these solar titans, the horizon remains bright—even if the direction of trade is shifting back home.
