Monsoon likely to reach in Kerala on May 27, check IMD’s prediction

Bhubaneswar: The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be earlier than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27 with a model error of ± 4 days, predicted the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over the south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal.

As per the normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around 22nd May. In association with enhanced cross equatorial winds, conditions are becoming favorable for advance of Southwest Monsoon into the South Andaman Sea, the Nicobar Islands and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, around 15th May, 2022.

Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.

The forecasts of the IMD were proved to be correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5 years (2017-2021) is given in the table below.