India’s Rising Silver Dependence a ‘Strategic Vulnerability,’ Warns GTRI as Imports Hit $9.2 Billion
A new report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) released on Wednesday has sounded an alarm over India’s surging dependence on silver imports, warning that the metal’s transition from a luxury commodity to a critical industrial input could create a “strategic vulnerability” for the nation.
According to the report, India’s silver imports surged to an estimated $9.2 billion in 2025, a staggering 44% increase from the previous year. This spike comes despite a massive rally in domestic silver prices, which nearly tripled in rupee terms over the last 12 months—climbing from approximately ₹85,000 per kg in early 2025 to over ₹2.43 lakh per kg by January 2026.
The Shift: From Jewelry to High-Tech Strategy
The GTRI report highlights a fundamental shift in how silver is used globally. While traditionally viewed as a “poor man’s gold” for jewelry and investment, silver has become indispensable to the modern industrial economy.
Green Energy: Solar energy now accounts for roughly 15% of global silver consumption.
Technology: Over half of global demand is now driven by electronics, electric vehicles (EVs), defense applications, and medical technologies.
Conductivity: Silver’s status as the metal with the highest electrical and thermal conductivity makes it irreplaceable in circuit boards and advanced battery systems.
India vs. China: The Processing Gap
The think tank pointed out a glaring disparity between India and China’s market positions. While China dominates the global supply chain by importing raw ores and concentrates to export high-value refined products, India remains the world’s largest importer of finished silver (bars and rods).
In FY2025, India exported less than $500 million worth of silver products while importing over $4.8 billion, showcasing a deep-seated reliance on foreign refined supply.
Geopolitical Risks and Supply Squeezes
GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava warned that the global supply chain is tightening. China, the world’s top processor, implemented a new license-based export regime effective January 1, 2026. This move, combined with a persistent global supply deficit of 200–250 million ounces per year, puts India at risk of supply shocks.
The report also flagged “opaque trade flows,” noting a $3.6 billion discrepancy between reported global exports and imports of silver ores, suggesting that supply chains are becoming less transparent and more prone to geopolitical weaponization.
Recommendations for Policy Shift
To mitigate these risks, GTRI urged the Indian government to stop treating silver merely as a precious metal and instead integrate it into the Critical Minerals and Energy-Transition framework. Key recommendations include:
Scaling Domestic Refining: Moving from importing finished bars to processing silver from the ore stage.
Overseas Partnerships: Securing long-term mining partnerships abroad to ensure a steady supply of raw material.
Recycling Infrastructure: Boosting domestic silver recycling to reduce the need for fresh imports.
Trade Diversification: Reducing reliance on a few trading hubs and re-evaluating duty concessions under Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) like the India-UAE CEPA, which have previously seen massive surges in imports.
“In a fragmenting global order, securing silver is becoming as vital as securing energy,” Srivastava noted. Without a shift in strategy, GTRI warns that India’s ambitious targets for solar energy and electronics manufacturing could be held hostage by volatile global markets and foreign export controls.
