Congress Fights Two-Front War To Remain Relevant In Odisha

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KalingaTV News Network

By Soumyajit Pattnaik

Resurrection still remains a far cry, but the Congress in Odisha is sorely exhibiting signs of new vitality. After the humiliating defeat in Bijepur by-election where the Congress candidate lost his deposit, the party was certainly on life-support system. A bevy of important leaders like former union minister Chandra Sekhar Sahu, ex-MLA Sudhir Samal, Bikram Panda etc had left the Congress to join the BJD in quick succession. The party was in complete disarray till Niranjan Patnaik stepped in as the new PCC president.

Team Niranjan has indubitably halted the unhindered march of the Congress towards complete irrelevance in Odisha politics. The ailing Congress which was on life support system has not only come out of ICU, but it seems to be sprinting again.

In 2014 General elections, the Congress had got 25.7% of the total votes polled in comparison to BJD’s 43.4% and 18% by the BJP. The dramatic slide of the Congress towards complete irrelevance can be gauged from the fact that in the Bijepur by-election held in February this year, the Congress vote share plummeted to a paltry 5.65%.

In the Bijepur by-election, the BJD got 56.78% of votes polled and the BJP 33.53%. Of course, Bijepur may not reflect the exact support base of all parties across the state, but a measly 5.65% of votes must have set the alarm bells ringing whether the Congress has become almost extinct in Odisha politics.

For many decades, Congress dominated Odisha politics. Naveen Patnaik was sworn in as the Chief Minister for the 1st time in 2000 as the head of the BJD-BJP alliance government, but the Congress vote share was higher than both the BJD and BJP in 2000 Assembly polls. While the Congress had got 33.78% votes (with only 26 Assembly seats), the BJD polled 29.40% votes (with 68 seats) and the BJP 18.20% votes (with 38 Assembly seats) in 2000 Assembly polls.

In 2004, the Congress vote share, in fact, increased and the vote share of both the BJD and BJP decreased. In 2004, Congress got 34.82% of votes while BJD got 27.36% votes and BJP 17.11% votes. This was the last time when the BJD and BJP fought the elections together. After the alliance was snapped, the BJD got 38.86% votes in 2009 Assembly polls, while the Congress got 29.10% and the BJP 15.09% votes.

In short, the BJD vote share increased by 11.50% in 2009 polls while the Congress vote share decreased by 5.72% and the BJP lost 2.06%. Thus, the Congress witnessed the first major erosion in vote share in 2009 Assembly polls. In 2014, there was a further erosion of 4% of votes for the Congress while the BJD vote share increased by another 5% as compared to 2009 polls. In 2014 polls when the Modi magic was very strong, the BJP could swing only 3% popular votes in its favour.

Thus, it’s evident that the vote share of the Congress has been on a steady downhill road since 2009 Assembly polls and it hit a new low in Bijepur by-election.

In this backdrop, Team Niranjan has been given the onerous responsibility to revitalise the party. Congress is stacked against heavy odds across the country. But in Odisha, Team Niranjan faces a unique dilemma. In Karnataka, Congress and JD-S have joined hands to keep the BJP at bay and now in MP, Congress has initiated parleys to have an alliance with BSP. However, the Congress has to fight a two-front war against the BJD and BJP in Odisha without any alliance. Since the BJD is the dominant party in Odisha and adhering to a policy of equidistance from the Congress and BJP, the alliance option is closed for Team Niranjan.

To turn the tide in favour of Congress, Niranjan needs to get the party’s vote share back to nearly 30%-35% which the party used to garner till 2004 Assembly polls. And he can succeed only if the anti-BJD votes get consolidated within the Congress. Since the Congress campaign was losing steam, the anti-BJD votes drifted towards the BJP. From the single dominant party, the Congress has to now retain its position as the dominant Opposition party in Odisha. So far Congress has lost the perception battle as the main challenger of the BJD.

Reloaded Niranjan has launched an unrelenting social media diatribe against Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and the BJD. Team Niranjan has to devise a well-conceived strategy to first occupy the Opposition space which the party was slowly ceding to the BJP. To some extent, the strategy seems to be working.

In comparison to BJP, Congress suffers from major handicaps. Congress President Rahul Gandhi has paid a solitary visit to Odisha in September 2015 after the 2014 polls while PM Modi has come six times after the NDA Government came to power at the Centre. The importance accorded to Odisha by the BJP can be gauged from the fact that the PM chose Cuttack as the venue to address the nation on the 4th anniversary of the NDA Government. In comparison, Odisha has been relegated to secondary importance by Rahul.

It’s too early to say whether Niranjan will succeed in his endeavour or not, but so far he has stemmed the exodus from the party and injected hope among party workers. He has an uphill task ahead, but the seasoned warrior is marching along with gusto.

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